The LoLP Calculation Statement explains how the NETSO calculates Derated Margin (DRM) and LoLP for use in Settlement under the BSC. The DRM is used to determine LoLP. LoLP values are used in the calculation of Reserve Scarcity Prices, as part of the BSC's imbalance price calculation.

<div data-id="1-1.1" style="margin-left: 2em">1.1 Scope and Purpose of the Statement</div>

<div data-id="1-1.2" style="margin-left: 2em">1.2 Balancing and Settlement <u class='defined-term'>Code</u> Provision</div>

<div data-id="1-1.3" style="margin-left: 2em">1.3 Main Users of the Procedure and their Responsibilities</div>

<div data-id="1-1.4" style="margin-left: 2em">1.4 Use of the Procedure</div>

<div data-id="1-1.5" style="margin-left: 2em">1.5 Review Procedure for the LoLP Calculation Statement</div>

<div data-id="1-1.6" style="margin-left: 2em">1.6 Associated <u class='defined-term'>Code Subsidiary Document</u>s</div>

<div data-id="1-1.7" style="margin-left: 2em">1.7 Abbreviations, Acronyms and Definitions</div>

<div data-id="1" style="margin-left: 1em">1 Introduction</div>

<div data-id="2-2.1" style="margin-left: 2em">2.1 Definition of LoLP and Indicative LoLP</div>

<div data-id="2" style="margin-left: 1em">2 Context</div>

<div data-id="3-3.1" style="margin-left: 2em">3.1 Inputs</div>

<div data-id="3-3.2-3.2.1" style="margin-left: 3em">3.2.1 Treatment of NDZ (i.e. Lead Time (LT) + 30 minutes)</div>

<div data-id="3-3.2-3.2.2" style="margin-left: 3em">3.2.2 Constraints</div>

<div data-id="3-3.2-3.2.3" style="margin-left: 3em">3.2.3 <u class='defined-term'>Short Term Operating Reserve</u> (<u class='defined-term'>STOR</u>)</div>

<div data-id="3-3.2-3.2.4" style="margin-left: 3em">3.2.4 Supplemental Balancing Reserve (SBR)</div>

<div data-id="3-3.2" style="margin-left: 2em">3.2 Modelling Conventional <u class='defined-term'>Generation Capacity</u> (GCAP)</div>

<div data-id="3-3.3" style="margin-left: 2em">3.3 Modelling Availability Factors (AV)</div>

<div data-id="3-3.4" style="margin-left: 2em">3.4 Modelling Capacity Requirement (CR)</div>

<div data-id="3-3.5" style="margin-left: 2em">3.5 Modelling Wind (W)</div>

<div data-id="3-3.6" style="margin-left: 2em">3.6 Common lead times for publishing values</div>

<div data-id="3" style="margin-left: 1em">3 Common calculation building blocks</div>

<div data-id="4-4.1" style="margin-left: 2em">4.1 Overview</div>

<div data-id="4-4.2" style="margin-left: 2em">4.2 Method for calculating static LoLP values from de-rated margin</div>

<div data-id="4-4.3" style="margin-left: 2em">4.3 <u class='defined-term'>Frequency</u> of calculating and publishing Final LoLP values</div>

<div data-id="4-4.4" style="margin-left: 2em">4.4 Creation of Static LoLP function and lookup table</div>

<div data-id="4-4.5" style="margin-left: 2em">4.5 Review of Static LoLP function and look-up table</div>

<div data-id="4" style="margin-left: 1em">4 Static <u class='defined-term'>Loss of Load Probability</u> Function Method</div>

<div data-id="5-5.1" style="margin-left: 2em">5.1 Overview</div>

<div data-id="5-5.2" style="margin-left: 2em">5.2 Method for calculating De-rated Margin values</div>

<div data-id="5-5.3" style="margin-left: 2em">5.3 <u class='defined-term'>Frequency</u> of calculating and publishing De-rated Margin values</div>

<div data-id="5" style="margin-left: 1em">5 De-rated Margin</div>

<div data-id="6-6.1" style="margin-left: 2em">6.1 Overview</div>

<div data-id="6-6.2" style="margin-left: 2em">6.2 Method for calculating dynamic LoLP values</div>

<div data-id="6-6.3" style="margin-left: 2em">6.3 <u class='defined-term'>Frequency</u> of calculating and publishing Final and Indicative LoLP values</div>

<div data-id="6" style="margin-left: 1em">6 Dynamic <u class='defined-term'>Loss of Load Probability</u> Function Method</div>

CONTENTS

Loss of Load Probability Calculation Methodolgy Statement V3.0