<div data-id="1-1.1" style="margin-left: 2em">1.1 Scope and Purpose of the Statement</div>

<html><head></head><body><div data-id="1-1.2" style="margin-left: 2em">1.2 Balancing and <u class="defined-term">Settlement</u> <u class="defined-term">Code</u> Provision</div></body></html>

<div data-id="1-1.3" style="margin-left: 2em">1.3 Main Users of the Procedure and their Responsibilities</div>

<div data-id="1-1.4" style="margin-left: 2em">1.4 Use of the Procedure</div>

<div data-id="1-1.5" style="margin-left: 2em">1.5 Review Procedure for the LoLP Calculation Statement</div>

<html><head></head><body><div data-id="1-1.6" style="margin-left: 2em">1.6 Associated <u class="defined-term"><u class="defined-term">Code</u> Subsidiary Document</u>s</div></body></html>

<div data-id="1-1.7" style="margin-left: 2em">1.7 Abbreviations, Acronyms and Definitions</div>

<div data-id="1" style="margin-left: 1em">1 Introduction</div>

<div data-id="2-2.1" style="margin-left: 2em">2.1 Definition of LoLP and Indicative LoLP</div>

<div data-id="2" style="margin-left: 1em">2 Context</div>

<div data-id="3-3.1" style="margin-left: 2em">3.1 Inputs</div>

<div data-id="3-3.2-3.2.1" style="margin-left: 3em">3.2.1 Treatment of NDZ (i.e. Lead Time (LT) + 30 minutes)</div>

<div data-id="3-3.2-3.2.2" style="margin-left: 3em">3.2.2 Constraints</div>

<div data-id="3-3.2-3.2.3" style="margin-left: 3em">3.2.3 <u class='defined-term'>Short Term Operating Reserve</u> (<u class='defined-term'>STOR</u>)</div>

<div data-id="3-3.2-3.2.4" style="margin-left: 3em">3.2.4 Supplemental Balancing Reserve (SBR)</div>

<div data-id="3-3.2" style="margin-left: 2em">3.2 Modelling Conventional <u class='defined-term'>Generation Capacity</u> (GCAP)</div>

<div data-id="3-3.3" style="margin-left: 2em">3.3 Modelling Availability Factors (AV)</div>

<div data-id="3-3.4" style="margin-left: 2em">3.4 Modelling Capacity Requirement (CR)</div>

<div data-id="3-3.5" style="margin-left: 2em">3.5 Modelling Wind (W)</div>

<div data-id="3-3.6" style="margin-left: 2em">3.6 Common lead times for publishing values</div>

<div data-id="3" style="margin-left: 1em">3 Common calculation building blocks</div>

<div data-id="4-4.1" style="margin-left: 2em">4.1 Overview</div>

<div data-id="4-4.2" style="margin-left: 2em">4.2 Method for calculating static LoLP values from de-rated margin</div>

<div data-id="4-4.3" style="margin-left: 2em">4.3 <u class='defined-term'>Frequency</u> of calculating and publishing Final LoLP values</div>

<div data-id="4-4.4" style="margin-left: 2em">4.4 Creation of Static LoLP function and lookup table</div>

<div data-id="4-4.5" style="margin-left: 2em">4.5 Review of Static LoLP function and look-up table</div>

<div data-id="4" style="margin-left: 1em">4 Static <u class='defined-term'>Loss of Load Probability</u> Function Method</div>

<div data-id="5-5.1" style="margin-left: 2em">5.1 Overview</div>

<div data-id="5-5.2" style="margin-left: 2em">5.2 Method for calculating De-rated Margin values</div>

<div data-id="5-5.3" style="margin-left: 2em">5.3 <u class='defined-term'>Frequency</u> of calculating and publishing De-rated Margin values</div>

<div data-id="5" style="margin-left: 1em">5 De-rated Margin</div>

<div data-id="6-6.1" style="margin-left: 2em">6.1 Overview</div>

<div data-id="6-6.2" style="margin-left: 2em">6.2 Method for calculating dynamic LoLP values</div>

<div data-id="6-6.3" style="margin-left: 2em">6.3 <u class='defined-term'>Frequency</u> of calculating and publishing Final and Indicative LoLP values</div>

<div data-id="6" style="margin-left: 1em">6 Dynamic <u class='defined-term'>Loss of Load Probability</u> Function Method</div>

CONTENTS

Loss of Load Probability Calculation Methodology Statement V2.0

Defined Terms

Cross-references